To make a mathematical case for X, you need to succeed at least Y amount of the time.
Going from 1st to 2nd with 0 outs: 60%
Going from 1st to 2nd with 1 out: 70%
Going from 1st to 2nd with 2 outs: 74%
Going from 2nd to 3rd with 0 outs: 83%
Going from 2nd to 3rd with 1 out: 65%
Going from 2nd to 3rd with 2 outs: 84%
Purposely committing a sacrifice fly: when is it good/bad?
GOOD!
Runners on 1st & 2nd with zero outs (final state is runners 2nd & 3rd with 1 out)
Runners on 1st & 3rd with one out (final state is runner on 2nd, 2 outs, 1 run in)
Runners on 2nd & 3rd with zero outs (final state is runner on 3rd, 1 out, 1 run in)*
Runner on 3rd with 1 out (final state is no one on base, 1 run in)
BAD!
Everything else.
* - Value of this play is actually only 0.02 runs. The highest value sacrifice is the second one (1st & 3rd with 1 out to 2nd & home with 2 out, value = 0.182 runs). The lowest value (read: poorest choice) sacrifice is when there's a runner on 3rd with zero outs (value = -0.633 runs), though this is one of the most common sacrifices.
Thus, I'd like it if you stopped sacrificing runners with from 2nd to 3rd. There's a reason why it's called a "sacrifice." You are giving up an out. And that out is statistically more important than a single runner going from 2nd to 3rd. It wouldn't bother me if you stopped trying to steal so often, either. Thanks.
