I got home, sketched it out a little, gave it some bones and tried to scrape off the fat. Then did the lit search for previous work that could be on the topic.
Well, there was a paper published in March of 2005, which means I was probably about 18 months late to the party. Insightful, interesting theory paper - that you could squeeze an empirical one out of, too - just out of my reach. It feels like losing a geography bee.